Atraks Research

Live hedge explorer

Find the hedges your business is missing.

Edit the input below and the entire pipeline reruns for your business — profile, retrieval, rerank, and matches all fill in live. About 10 seconds end-to-end. The same flow we use when designing real engagements.

How the explorer works

Watch the pipeline run on a real example.

Edit the input below and the entire pipeline reruns for your business. Every scene fills in with the actual output. The initial example is a Florida commercial property broker.

  1. 01

    You describe your business

    One sentence is enough. Industry, geography, scale, anything that shapes your risk surface. Edit the input below to rerun the pipeline on your business.

    Your business

    ⌘ + Enter to submit

    Or try

  2. 02

    We profile your exposure

    A senior-risk-consultant style profile: 3–5 distinct exposure mechanisms, each tagged with the specific market-topic phrases we'll search for.

    Direct loss exposure: Atlantic hurricane landfall

    Atlantic hurricane Florida landfallnamed storm Gulf CoastFEMA disaster declaration

    Rate-driven margin squeeze on carrier float yields

    Fed rate cut December10-year Treasury yield Q4FOMC decision next meeting

    State commissioner rate filing approval

    Florida OIR rate filing approvalFlorida insurance commissioner decision

    Reinsurance market capacity at renewal

    Florida hurricane reinsurance renewalreinsurance pricing 2026
  3. 03

    We score every open market against your profile

    Every open Kalshi market we have a price on, embedded with text-embedding-3-large. Cosine similarity against your industry, each mechanism, and each topic query.

    2,147

    live markets in your operational window

    10

    on-topic by embedding similarity

    7

    passed rerank into a matcher

    Sample of the top-similarity slice · highlighted = passed rerank

    Atlantic hurricane lands FL by OctFed rate cut by Dec 2026Will Trump invoke Insurrection Act?Bitcoin above $130k by EOYFlorida OIR approves homeowners filingS&P closes above 7,000 in 2026Bank of Canada cuts in 2026Will Zelenskyy + Putin meet?Reinsurance renewal pricing Q1Inflation above 4% YoYCalifornia wildfire severity 2026Recession starts in 2026Named storm makes Gulf landfallGDP growth 2.1–2.5% in 2026Treasury 10-yr above 5% by Q4Pope's identity announced this yearUnemployment above 6%Trump Greenland deal by 2027FEMA disaster declaration FLWill SpaceX IPO this year?WTI oil above $115 EOYTariff increase on Chinese importsPowell removed before term endsStanley Cup champion 2026

    The big number on the left is filtered to your hedging window (events resolving within ~12 months) and excludes sports, entertainment, and zero-volume markets. The total open surface across both exchanges is much larger; most of it is long-dated novelty bets that aren't operational hedges.

  4. 04

    We rerank and match per mechanism

    Each mechanism runs its own retrieve → rerank → match pipeline in parallel. A gpt-4o-mini reranker scores hedge-relevance 0–10 to suppress topical-but-causally-weak hits before the matcher LLM sees them.

    Direct loss exposure: Atlantic hurricane landfall

    9Atlantic hurricane lands FL by Oct
    8Named storm makes Gulf landfall
    7FEMA disaster declaration FL

    Rate-driven margin squeeze on carrier float yields

    8Fed rate cut by Dec 2026
    7Treasury 10-yr above 5% by Q4
    6Bank of Canada cuts in 2026

    State commissioner rate filing approval

    8Florida OIR approves homeowners filing

    Reinsurance market capacity at renewal

    7Reinsurance renewal pricing Q1
  5. 05

    The strongest matches survive a critic, then surface

    A separate critic call grades each proposed match against a strict rubric. Anything below 6 (the floor of what we'd put in front of a paying client) is dropped. What's left is your hedge stack.

    Atlantic hurricane makes landfall in Florida this season

    YES → hurts your business

    68%

    market odds · YES

    How it affects your business

    Direct loss exposure: a Florida landfall drives a claim spike across your book and pulls reinsurance cost higher in the next renewal cycle, compressing the commission multiple on your portfolio.

    How to hedge it

    Buy YES sized to the dollar value of one renewal cycle's expected commission. The contract pays out in the same scenario that hurts your book hardest.

    KXATLHURR-FLexample

    Fed cuts rates by year-end

    YES → hurts your business

    41%

    market odds · YES

    How it affects your business

    Rate-driven margin squeeze: lower long rates compress carriers' float yields, which shows up in pricing-discipline cycles and trickles into broker commission economics.

    How to hedge it

    Buy YES if the carriers you place with rely heavily on float. Sizing is smaller — second-order, not direct-loss — but it diversifies your hedge stack.

    FEDDECexample

Educational only. Not investment advice. Atraks Research operates under CFTC Rule 4.14(a)(10). Full disclosures →